Wild Swings
Larry Levin’s Nightly Newsletter & Trading Signals- October 1, 2009
Wild Swings
Dear Readers,
Yesterday’s wild swinging stock market prices resembled a roller coaster soaring up and down the tracks. One minute you might think the latest batch of terrible economic may slam the market, then the next minute you’re thinking it’s taking off for the moon with John Glen only to come crashing back to terra-firma. Wild swings indeed.
Yesterday’s main economic news came on the heels of yesterday’s “shocking” consumer confidence data. Consumer confidence did not improve in September according to the data, which fell back to 53.1 from 54.1 the prior month. The “shock” was that expectations were for a reading of 57.0. The worse news in the report is the current assessment of the labor market with substantially more saying jobs are hard to get.
Apparently the idea of the very first “jobless recovery” isn’t much of a “confidence” booster. Oh let’s be blunt; consumers know damn well what a so-called “jobless recovery” is - a recession!
Today’s private-firm (ADP) estimate of the monthly employment data believes job losses will increase Friday.
The third estimate of the 2nd Q GDP was better than expected. Worthless economist consensus was for a reading of -1.2%, but in came in at -0.7%.
Today’s real kicker, one that will drive GDP right back down again if it spreads, was the Chicago PMI. Consensus for this report was 52.0. Readings above 50.0 show expansion - readings below 50.0 show economic contraction. The actual number surprised the market with terrible reading of just 46.1.
Will we get more bad news tomorrow? Will it matter? Doubt it.
Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.”
Go to www.PitNoise.com for a trial run.
Go to www.PitNoise.com for a trial run.
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Notes from the Pit…for 10-01-09
ATTEMPTED DIRECTION: BUYER or SELLER
1) Rotation Buyer
2) Range Extension Neither
3) Public went home as a… Neither
4) Buying-Selling Tails Seller
5) Open in Bull or Bear Range Seller
ATTEMPTED DIRECTION: Higher = Lower = Neutral=Yes
Comments: The attempted direction was neutral after wild swings in both directions.
ATTEMPTED PERFORMANCE:
1) Today’s NYSE Volume compared to prior day & 10-day average.
Today (1.774 billion) Higher =XX Lower = Unchanged =
10-day Ave: (1.387 billion) Higher =XX Lower = Unchanged =
2) Value Area: Higher = OL/Higher= OL/Lower =XX
Lower = Inside= Outside =
3) VA Width: Wider =XX Narrower = Unchanged=
COMMENTS: The VA was OL/lower and wider with high volume due to the end of the quarter. Decliners vs. advancers were 1.5-1. Attempted performance was mildly bearish.
POTENTIAL RESULTS: Weekly jobless claims will be released before the open, while the ISM and construction spending reports will be released 30-min after the open. Today’s auction, after the break out, was a balanced day but with a wide range. Because of Friday’s monthly employment report I doubt we will get another break out Thursday.
Please use the pivot calculator in the “shared folder” for all of today’s pivots __________________________________________________________________________________
Results from Virtual Trading Room
Electronic (ES) mini-SP 500
1) 80% buy @ 1:22pm at 1055.75 = b/e (1 lot)
2) Algorithm positions (10)
3) ”Reading the Tape” positions (4) …combined Secret’s, Algo, & “Reading the Tape” total…+4.75
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Today’s Value Areas:
Use These Value Areas
for Trading on THUR
ES 1056.25 / 1044.25
YM 9692 / 9568
NQ 1723.50 / 1699.00
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Today’s Trading Tip:
Good News, Bad News, No News, it doesn’t matter stick to the trend!
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